fast decisions

 

Race 

@multiplanet1

Elon Musk was asked by an interviewer what he does when he makes a wrong decision. He said he doesn't make decisions based on being right. He makes decisions based on expected value. Which means he expects to be wrong frequently. He said if you're not wrong at least 30% of the time you're not making enough decisions. He described SpaceX's approach to rocket design. Instead of spending years perfecting a design on paper and then building it, they build it fast, launch it, watch it explode, and use the explosion as data for the next version. The explosions aren't failures. They're the fastest way to generate the information needed for success. He said most companies fail not because they make bad decisions but because they make too few decisions. They spend so long trying to be right that the opportunity passes. A wrong decision made quickly generates data. A delayed decision generates nothing. Then he said the part that made the interviewer go quiet. He said the biggest mistakes of his career weren't the times he was wrong. They were the times he was right but too slow. The times he knew the answer and waited for more confirmation before acting. The delay cost more than any wrong answer ever did. The world sees Elon as a risk taker. He sees himself as someone who moves fast enough that the cost of being wrong is always lower than the cost of being slow. That's not the same thing as courage. It's math.